Monday, 7 November 2011

Scholar: ‘Hard to say’ if Arab Spring is positive

According to Jonathan Adelman, professor in the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Denver, it is "hard to say" right now if the Arab Spring sweeping the Middle East and North Africa is positive or negative for the security interests of the United States and Israel.

Adelman, a frequent guest commentator on network TV news, is a popular speaker for Israel. He served as the doctoral dissertation adviser to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington. Since receiving his Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1976, Adelman has written or edited 10 books, many of which focus on the Middle East.

The Jewish Light caught up with Adelman for a phone interview shortly before his trip to St. Louis.

Now that the so-called "Arab Spring" has had some time to evolve-resulting in the ouster of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and the capture and death of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya-would you say overall that its effect has been positive or negative for the security interests of Israel, the United States and the West?

Overall, it's really hard to say. Some things are positive in the sense that authoritarian, repressive dictatorships inevitably fade away, and the fact some fairly strong secular liberal movements emerge is positive. But the negative could be worse than the positive from an Israeli perspective. The future of the Islamist fundamentalism in the region looks very strong. We just saw that in the election in Tunisia Islamists got 40 or 50 percent of the vote, even though they are more moderate. We are obviously very concerned about what's going on in Turkey, where we have seen a strong anti-Israel move by the Islamist Justice Development Party, and we are also very worried about Iraq. So, I think on the whole, it's not been positive, but it's really too early to tell.


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